Wednesday, February 28, 2007
FCST: 2/23/07
Today, supercells and tornadoes will be possible across eastern Oklahoma, southwest Missouri and eastern Arkansas. Concerns for today include: WSW 850 mb winds, a strong cap, moisture depth, and timing of the vorticity maximum. Conversely, favorable factors are: reasonably high magnitude of moisture return (Tds ~60 F), powerful upper-system (wind max of 150 kts), strong shear at all levels and low LCL heights.
The RUC now is very bullish in developing storms down the length of the dryline by 00z with initial development occurring by 21Z (3 pm CST). Hopefully, this indicates that the capping inversion will not be as significant as previously advertised. Even so, I plan on taking this a bit more cautiously since 1.) Cap busts are not fun, and 2.) The target area is reasonably close to my starting location.
My initial thought is to go northeast on I-44 and target the corridor between Tulsa and Bartlesville. Perhaps, it will be best to hedge southward initially since moisture return has already occurred in SE Oklahoma and will have undoubtedly reached EC Oklahoma by 00Z. I'm slightly concerned that moisture return further north will not happen, owing to the strongly veered winds that exist at 850 mb now.
TARGET: Bristow, OK
Gabe
The RUC now is very bullish in developing storms down the length of the dryline by 00z with initial development occurring by 21Z (3 pm CST). Hopefully, this indicates that the capping inversion will not be as significant as previously advertised. Even so, I plan on taking this a bit more cautiously since 1.) Cap busts are not fun, and 2.) The target area is reasonably close to my starting location.
My initial thought is to go northeast on I-44 and target the corridor between Tulsa and Bartlesville. Perhaps, it will be best to hedge southward initially since moisture return has already occurred in SE Oklahoma and will have undoubtedly reached EC Oklahoma by 00Z. I'm slightly concerned that moisture return further north will not happen, owing to the strongly veered winds that exist at 850 mb now.
TARGET: Bristow, OK
Gabe
# posted by Gabe Garfield @ 9:51 AM 
