Chasing the Wind

The 12Z RUC offers perhaps a glimmer of hope to this otherwise untantalizing setup. The RUC suggests that morning convection will move to the northeast, leaving subsidence in its wake. As a result, daytime heating should commence along the dryline, and a narrow corridor of instability should develop (800-1200 j/kg). Tds will be a little low (only in the mid-upper 50s) resulting in fairly high LCLs, but the shear will certainly be strong enough to support a supercell mode. RUC actually removes CINH by 21Z and develops convective precipitation in SW OK by 00z. RUC is perhaps not the best model to be using for a convective initiation forecast, but it at least develops a somewhat favorable mesoscale environment for supercells.

In addition, the exiting convection should leave an outflow boundary in its wake, which the Eta has hinted at for a few days now. This boundary will most likely intersect the dryline in SW OK. As usual with OFBs, it will enhance low-level vorticity, keep LCLs relatively low (along and north of it), and provide a focus for convergence. Should significant insolation begin this morning, I think I will probably venture out to western Oklahoma this afternoon.

Target: Hollis, OK
ETD: 12 p.m.