Chasing the Wind

Classic cold core setup for this afternoon in SW and C Oklahoma. The center of a very cold 500 mb trough (temps around -25 C) will pass over western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. A pseudo warm front will setup between Oklahoma City and Ardmore this afternoon, which will enhance low-level shear and lower LCL heights a bit. Deep-layer shear will also be strong, which empirically (according to Jon Davies) supports the possiblity of somewhat longer-lived tornadoes in any low-topped supercells that form.

Also, Jon Davies NSTP composite index is maximized by the RUC from SW OK at 21Z to C OK at 00Z. With insolation likely beginning in earnest shortly, low-level lapse rates will also be maximized which will yield a very favorable environment for the tilting and stretching of the low-level vorticity (which should be in abundance today).

Targeting the interesection of the warm front with the low center, which should be NW of Lawton by 21Z. Hype is low, hope is high. :-D